What the Pistachio Shortage Teaches Us About Demand Forecasting in Foodservice

When TikTok Goes Nuts, So Does Supply

If you noticed your restaurant and cafe customers have tried sourcing pistachios, particularly in mid-2025, you’ve probably noticed something’s off. Prices are up. Supply is tight. And suddenly, everyone’s asking: What happened to pistachios?

The answer? Dubai Chocolate and the power of social media.

This viral trend is more than a curious case of pistachio mania. It’s a real-time lesson in how digital trends can break traditional demand forecasting models, especially for foodservice distributors, wholesalers, and manufacturers.

Here’s what happened, why it matters, and how food businesses can better prepare for what goes viral next.

The Dubai Chocolate Effect: How a Treat Triggered a Supply Squeeze

In late 2024, a simple luxury sweet, “Dubai chocolate”, started gaining traction on TikTok and Instagram. Made with roasted pistachios, crispy kataifi (shredded phyllo dough), and high-quality chocolate, this Middle Eastern confection exploded in popularity thanks to influencer culture and snack hauls.

By 2025, demand has skyrocketed across global markets. Cafés and dessert shops have begun replicating their own versions. Retailers rush to stock the now-iconic treat. And just like that, pistachios—already a premium ingredient—are in short supply.

The result?

Distributors and suppliers across foodservice are now grappling with erratic availability, spiking costs, and unpredictable ordering patterns from customers chasing a trend they can’t afford to miss.

What This Means for Foodservice Distributors and Manufacturers

The pistachio shortage is more than a nutty anomaly. It’s a warning sign. In today’s market, trends can shift demand almost overnight—and traditional forecasting tools often can’t keep up.

Let’s break it down:

• Trend-chasing restaurants & cafés: When a product goes viral, your customers don’t want it in 6 weeks… they want it yesterday. Cafés add it to their menus. Bakeries design new products around it. Missing the trend means missing out on foot traffic, content, and relevance.

• Supply chain lag: Pistachios are a slow-growing crop. When demand surges suddenly, there's no quick fix. By the time suppliers respond, the window of opportunity may have closed—or your loyal clients may have churned.

• Distributors under pressure: You’re expected to anticipate demand, absorb price fluctuations, and keep supply consistent. But when TikTok is in the driver’s seat, how can you predict what’s next?

Why Social Media Should Be in Your Forecasting Toolkit

Historically, demand forecasting has been based on past sales, seasonal cycles, and business relationships. But that’s not enough anymore.

Trends are no longer local or linear—they're algorithm-driven and global. A snack trend that starts in Saudi Arabia can spike café orders in Sydney within days.

Here’s what modern demand forecasting needs to account for:

• Viral velocity: A single viral post can change product desirability overnight. That means faster responses are needed at every level—inventory planning, procurement, and menu development.

• Influencer and cultural trends: These aren't fringe drivers. They directly shape B2B demand as restaurants and retailers build menus around what’s trending.

• Short-term spikes: Not every trend becomes a staple. The goal isn’t to overstock, but to sense shifts early and supply just enough, fast enough, to meet peak demand without creating waste.

How FOBOH Helps You Stay Ahead of the Curve

When a viral trend like Dubai chocolate throws your forecasts out the window, you need more than spreadsheets and gut instinct. You need real-time intelligence—and a team that’s always alert. That’s where Daz and Sal, FOBOH’s AI Agents, step in.

Together, they help foodservice distributors, suppliers, and manufacturers see demand shifts early, respond fast, and turn unpredictable spikes into smooth sales.

Daz is your sharpest analyst, working 24/7 to spot what's changing in your customers' buying patterns—before you see it on an invoice.

• Monitors in real time: Daz scans your order data and the internet trends continuously, detecting unexpected dips or spikes—like a sudden pistachio surge.

• Predicts what’s next: It flags anomalies and patterns, distinguishing between seasonal changes and social-fuelled demand swings by searching the web.

While Daz keeps an eye on demand, Sal helps your sales team act on it—before competitors do.

• Notifies reps of sudden changes: If Daz spots a drop in a customer’s usual pistachio order, Sal nudges your sales team to check in and protect the relationship.

• Drives upsell conversations: Sal highlights which customers are likely to want trending SKUs based on past behaviour, making every call more targeted.

Final Thoughts: Forecasting in the Age of Influence

The pistachio shortage may pass, but the lesson stays: forecasting is no longer just about what sold last year. It's about reading the signals—across social media, customer behaviour, and market shifts—and adjusting faster than your competitors.

In a world where TikTok trends dictate tableside desserts, distributors need more than spreadsheets. They need foresight.

Want to Future-Proof Your Forecasting?

Let FOBOH help you see demand coming—before your customers even ask. 👉 Book a demo to see how our AI Agents turn market noise into meaningful insights for foodservice suppliers and distributors.